Fatal US School Shootings (1999-2025)

While previous studies have examined the impact of individual-level factors like firearm access, mental health, and attacker motivation in mass shootings, less is known about what makes some school shootings fatal and others not. This analysis uses data from 1999 to 2025 from The Washington Post School Shootings Database to model the probability that a shooting results in at least one death based on contextual characteristics, such as shooter-school connection, presence of injuries, and socioeconomic composition of students. Our findings, based on a logistic regression model, indicate that incidents involving targeted or indiscriminate intent, no non-shooter injuries, and shooters connected to the school community are more likely to be fatal. These results highlight the need for proactive safety measures focused on behavioral monitoring, threat assessment, and emergency preparedness. Click project repo to view more.